Thursday, September 18, 2008

How Obama Won The Nomination



Hands down Jay Cost, doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Chicago, has written the most interesting account of how Senator Obama beat Senator Clinton to clinch the Democratic party nomination. From Policy Review:

"Interestingly, the type of contest might have had a causal effect on Obama’s performance. That is, if the contests had been primaries rather than caucuses, Obama ’s vote share might have declined. Washington state, Nebraska, and Idaho allocated their delegates by the results of their caucuses. At some point afterwards, each held nonbinding primaries, or beauty contests. In the caucuses, Obama defeated Clinton in Washington and Nebraska by 2–1, and by 4–1 in Idaho. In the nonbinding beauty contests, Obama’s margins fell to just five points in Washington, two points in Nebraska, and 18 points in Idaho. Meanwhile, Texas was the only state to allocate delegates by primary and caucus. Both contests were held on the same day. Clinton won the Texas primary by four points. However, Obama bested Clinton in the caucuses by 12 points. That’s a 16-point swing on the same day.

"These differing results might have been a consequence of the enthusiasm gap that separated the two candidates. That is, Obama supporters were much more willing than Clinton supporters to participate in the caucus process, which can be time-consuming."


Also, curiously, In the Mountain West and the Pacific West, Obama was able to win a fair portion of 'downscale' white voters." That might explain the Obama campaign's laserlike focus on the Rocky Mountain West, no? The full, must-read article here.

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